IE has a string of Predictions features lined up this week. Here is another in the series;
Michael van der Straaten, CEO of Antares Global, looks at what 2026 will bring for the specialty market, both for the businesses that exist here, and for underwriters.
Three underwriting themes for the specialty market in 2026
As the new year approaches, I see three significant factors that will drive underwriting behaviour in the market in 2026.
On the reinsurance side, I believe the reinsurance market will remain competitive, with plenty of capacity and potentially softer pricing. This will mean that insurers will benefit from improved reinsurance terms but will need to stay disciplined on risk selection. Reinsurance pricing softening may squeeze margins which is good for buyers in the short term, but reinsurers may take on more risk for less reward. Of course, catastrophe, climate, and emerging risks also remain unpredictable. This is critical to the continuation of the soft market and any severe events could quickly reverse the soft market sentiment.
In other areas, rapid MGA growth could test underwriting discipline. While MGAs bring huge benefits to our market, the higher volumes and new capital entering the sector could lead to inconsistent risk quality if oversight isn’t strong. This is an area for us all to watch carefully in 2026. Underwriting discipline is a critical success factor in keeping a low COR for us all.
And finally, economic uncertainty still a major external variable. Inflation, rates, geopolitics, and loss trends could impact claims experience and capital availability.
Three themes for business change and innovation
So, with these themes in mind, what will be the key drivers for those of us who are responsible for leading businesses in this market in 2026?
I believe that it is certain that MGAs will continue their expansive march as a preferred channel for niche and specialty business. Their growth is only going to continue, in spite of the fact that the FCA last week knocked back requests by the market to remove duplication of oversight by their insurer capacity. This won’t stop growth, all it will do is drive MGAs further into the arms of the incubators who can help them with regulatory and operational issues.
Alternative capital, captives, and new structures will also continue to shape the market, and this is exciting for those of us who hope to see continued growth in London. The LMG’s work in pushing for simplification of the rules is helping to make our market work more efficient and next year’s FCA rule simplification should encourage innovation and streamline processes for commercial lines. These regulatory changes are positive, including the Consumer Duty announcements this week. However, areas such as product governance still require clarification. In spite of a soft(ish) market, there continue to be huge opportunities for growth in the coming year; almost all of them attached to innovative thinking of some sort. It is this that makes our market the global leader in specialty innovation.
Overall, I see next year as being a positive one. I look forward to a supportive environment for growth, but one that rewards strong underwriting, data insight, and operational efficiency.
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