This piece is by Saleem Khan, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Pole Star Global. The situation may well ease as Saudi Arabia makes full use of its overland pipeline, plus several nation States decide to negotiate safe passage deals themselves, rather than wait for the armed conflict to end with formal talks. That said, oil is not the only commodity affected by the war and food, raw materials or parts supply issues might become a major headache if things go on for some months rather than weeks.
Overview
Maritime risk in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding Gulf region has escalated sharply over the past week, with multiple confirmed strikes on commercial vessels, port disruptions and increasing navigation interference affecting operations across the area.
While the situation remains fluid, several developments are already shaping the operational environment for shipping companies, insurers and commodity traders.
“The recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz show how quickly maritime risk can escalate from geopolitical tension to operational disruption. For shipping operators the challenge is not only the threat environment itself, but also maintaining reliable situational awareness as navigation signals degrade and vessel activity becomes harder to interpret.”
Saleem Khan – Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Pole Star Global
Key developments
Direct attacks on commercial vessels
Multiple commercial vessels have been struck by projectiles between 9 and 11 March in the Gulf region and Strait of Hormuz approaches. Confirmed incidents include attacks on vessels such as Mayuree Naree, Star Gwyneth, Safesea Vishnu, Zefyros and Source Blessing. In one of the most serious incidents, a tanker struck south of Basra suffered major damage and a crew fatality following a projectile strike and fire.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) threat level for the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches remains CRITICAL.
Escalating risk posture in the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian leadership has publicly stated that the Strait of Hormuz should remain blocked, while the IRGC navy has declared that vessels intending to transit the Strait must obtain permission from Iran. Although operational details remain unclear, the statements reinforce expectations that disruption to normal commercial transit will continue.
Port disruption across the region
Operational disruption is affecting several key ports and terminals across the Gulf region. Salalah port operations were suspended following drone strikes on fuel storage infrastructure, while Sohar has been suspended as a precautionary measure. Export operations at Basra oil terminals have ceased, and LNG production and exports at Qatar’s Al Shaheen and Halul Island terminals have been halted.
These developments are significant because ports such as Salalah and Sohar had been considered potential routing alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.
Navigation integrity challenges
Navigation reliability is also deteriorating in parts of the Gulf. NAVWARN alerts remain in force warning of GPS spoofing and jamming near Fujairah and the Strait of Hormuz approaches, with vessels advised not to rely solely on GPS for navigation. In parallel, some vessels servicing Iranian export routes have been reported conducting AIS suppression or spoofing, complicating vessel tracking and maritime situational awareness.
Outlook
In the near term, several developments will determine how the maritime risk environment evolves:
- Potential naval mine deployment in the Strait of Hormuz
- Continued asymmetric tactics including drone and unmanned vessel attacks
- Increasing pressure on alternative regional ports and routing infrastructure
- Possible spillover effects on shipping routes in neighbouring regions
The Strait of Hormuz and surrounding Gulf waters currently remain an extreme-risk operating environment, requiring heightened situational awareness and contingency planning by maritime operators.
Be the first to comment