Are UK roads getting safer or more dangerous? It’s a tough question to answer, but it matters to insurers in the Motor sector, as they try to set risk parameters for drivers of all ages, experience, genders and credit rating status. Yep bad credit affects your insurance. But we digress, what matters in this report is the data on road accidents and injuries, both solo vehicle and involving other vehicles or pedestrians and cyclists.
The government has just published some insights for 2023 such as;
- 1,624 fatalities, a decline of 5% compared to 2022
- 29,711 killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties, little change compared to 2022
- 132,977 casualties of all severities, a decline of 2% compared to 2022
Given the rise in vehicles on the roads, plus the estimated 1 million uninsured drivers (source: MIB) in the UK, that is a reasonably static trend. However some research by iCompario revealed that in some areas one in 50 drivers may lack insurance cover. London is espcially bad for uninsured and unlicensed driving, although Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Bradford and other cities all have high ratios of drivers with no documents related to car ownership or insurance.
INJURY STATS ARE NOT ACCIDENT STATS
There’s an important point to note about the statistics released each year by the DfT. They cover injuries, from slight to fatal, not incidents on the roads.
As the population has increased by around 10 million in the last two decades, plus more vehicles are on the roads, there must be a percentage rise in incidents. The reason this hasn’t affected the casualty figures is simple; cars, lorries, vans and infrastructure on the roads is safer. Airbags, automated braking, hazard warnings, lane change sensors etc have all played a part in reducing serious injuries and deaths in particular.
That said adding thousands of steel bollards, camera poles and steel signage poles alongside UK roads has placed more solid hazards in the way for those on two wheels, who suffer an “off.” The road surfaces have also fallen apart in many areas due to poor/zero maintenance, but perhaps that has reduced speeds as drivers try to get another year from their suspension arms and shocks?
MOTORCYCLE INSURANCE SHOULD BE GETTING CHEAPER
One trend worth noting is the fall in fatal incidents when it comes to motorcycle riders. The Govt report notes;
- of the four major road user types the one with the biggest estimated percentage change for 2023 compared to 2022 for fatalities was motorcyclists, which showed a decline of 10%.
There are no airbags on motorbikes or scooters, although a few riders have leathers with airbags in the back protectors. There are ABS and traction control systems on more recent motorcycles above 600cc, but most of the 1.3 million registered for road use have no ADAS features beyond ABS braking.
This means riders are becoming more risk averse, plus their average age is now in the mid-50s. That should mean premiums are going down slightly, not up. But in reality premiums have almost doubled, same as car insurance, over the last two years. Insurers would do well to request that UK Police forces start to separate motorcycle and scooter courier accidents from leisure rider statistics, as this would offer a much more realistic risk profile baseline for both groups. Unlikely to happen though, so the industry needs to solve this data problem by itself if it wants to price risk accurately.
UNRELIABLE DATA
The report notes that two Police forces failed to submit accurate road casualty data, Somerset & Avon and Staffordshire. Shocking lack of basic procedures being followed really, but it highlights how “official” data in the UK cannot be relied upon by insurers, politicans, road safety “experts” or media pundits when it comes to debating road safety policy and issues.
Mostly it’s a guesstimate, at best.
E-SCOOTERS
IE has long stated that most adults are incapable of handling an e-scooter in busy traffic, as they lack the rapid reaction times, circus-like balance skills and multi-hazard awareness required to pilot them. (editor included) The latest data shows that London saw 321 people injured whilst Northampton had 40 incidents. Manchester saw just 13, the entire county of Gwent in South Wales just 9. All these variables suggest a sketchy approach to reporting by Police forces – again.
The Govt has attempted to collate casualty data on e-scooters in the 40 trial areas set up by the previous Tory regime. Sadly the reporting by Police forces is so poor the report notes it has no confidence in the data recorded. With just 3 incidents report in London trial areas it’s safe to say that it’s being under-reported for political reasons.
Nobody wants to admit the e-scooter trials were a bad idea, created pavement hazards for the disabled and partially sighted, plus put people at risk who lacked even basic bicycle riding experience.
CYCLISTS
The pandemic saw a huge investment in new cycle lanes, roadblocks like planters, LTNs etc. Has it saved lives? Probably, here are the stats for 2023;
- fatalities were down 35% from 134 to 87
- serious injuries (adjusted) increased by 18%
UK public sector agencies are notoriously poor at counting traffic miles by vehicle type. This is because there is a variation in camera coverage on roads used by cyclists, leisure motorcyclists or drivers too. Manual traffic counts tend to occur on weekdays, not weekends, which is when many groups of men venture out on bicycles. Some 58% of the 2023 cycling fatalities were recorded on rural roads, about half of which involved a car.
For insurers it may be worth asking policyholders to agree to choosing between a social/commuting class of bicycle cover, with group riding (over 4 bicycles), pacemaking or time trials/Stava etc classified as higher risk activity. Especially on racing bicycles. Or just exclude it completely.
Given the sheer numbers of delivery bicycles, most battery powered, now being used by freelancer couriers in UK cities it seems too late to call for compulsory third party liability cover as a condition of employment. But the day will come most likely, if only to confirm the theoretical identity of many of the hooded and masked riders.
RAC COMMENT
RAC road safety spokesperson Rod Dennis said: “Thankfully, this latest data shows overall casualty and fatality levels are down compared to 12 months earlier, and significantly down on a decade ago – despite a return to the number of miles being driven pre-pandemic. It also confirms that motorways are safer than any other type of road, especially compared to rural roads.
“But behind the headline figures there are some important points to note, such as the fact that men are far more likely to be killed or injured on our roads than women, and that pedestrian fatalities and those involving young people appear to be rising.
“Britain might have an enviable international reputation when it comes to road safety, but this latest data still shows there’s room for improvement. We hope the new government’s forthcoming road safety strategy will help to reduce fatality and casualty numbers further.”
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