Guy Carpenter Offers Insights on Hurricane Melissa

The word from Guy Carpenter as Hurricane Melissa makes its progress;

•  At 8 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center has listed Melissa as a 160-mph category 5 hurricane 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Melissa has intensified by 15 mph since 11 pm last night and 90 mph since Saturday morning. The current estimated motion is west at 3 mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica and Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. Hurricane watches are in effect for southeastern and central Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.
• Jamaica and Cuba Impacts: Melissa is forecasted to continue west until this afternoon when a slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected, followed by a northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over western Jamaica late tonight and early Tuesday as a category 5 hurricane. Melissa is then forecasted to move across southeastern Cuba late Tuesday night as a category 3 hurricane. In Jamaica, destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight. Wind speeds at the top and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the sustained winds and gusts listed by the National Hurricane Center. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible in eastern Jamaica.
• Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Impacts: Melissa is forecasted to move across the southeastern and Central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. Sustained wind speeds are expected to be near 100 mph even after Cuba and Jamaica landfall, therefore significant wind impacts are possible for these islands. Storm surge coupled with 6-12 inches of rain on these islands is projected to bring major flooding locally.
• Potential Bermuda Impacts: Late Thursday into early Friday, there is potential for Melissa to make landfall in Bermuda as a category 1 or 2 hurricane. Melissa track errors on day 4 have averaged close to 150 miles and intensity forecast errors averaged over 20 mph so this extended outlook is very uncertain. Tuesday afternoon, uncertainty for this forecast length will reduce significantly after the storm makes landfall in Cuba and Jamaica.
• Jamaica Landfall Analogs: Five major (category 3 or greater) hurricanes on record have made landfall in Jamaica, with Hurricane Gilbert (1988) the only Category 4 hurricane to make a direct landfall on the island. Gilbert made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. If the radius around Jamaica is increased to storms that have passed within 50 miles, 5 category 4-5 hurricanes have tracked this close to Jamaica with Gilbert being the only direct landfall. Therefore, Hurricane Melissa has no direct analog as it is currently forecasted to make landfall at 160 mph in southwestern Jamaica.

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