Alexander Brandt, sanctions lawyer in Reed Smith’s Transportation Industry Group, takes a look ahead to 2026:
“2025 has been a high-risk year for shipping from a sanctions perspective, where we have seen a step change in approach from both the EU and the UK, in terms of the breadth of measures and enforcement. 2026 remains mired in uncertainty, particularly surrounding the flow of Russian oil and LNG.
“Sanctions have become one of the most defining forces shaping the global shipping industry in 2025. What began as targeted restrictions have evolved into a web of overlapping measures that touch every aspect of maritime trade — from vessel ownership and flagging to finance and insurance. For shipowners and charterers, the challenge isn’t just knowing what’s prohibited but anticipating what might become prohibited next. The complexity and pace of change mean that compliance has continued to shift to a central part of commercial decision-making.
“We’ve seen regulators move beyond targeting states or cargoes to focus on the entire logistics chain — the vessels, operators, brokers, and those ancillary service providers that sit behind the movement of vessels and cargo. The expansion of ‘shadow fleet’ sanctions has put the industry under unprecedented scrutiny. Every voyage now carries a compliance dimension, and the operational cost of getting it wrong can be enormous — not only in fines, but in reputational damage and loss of market access.
“Looking ahead to 2026, the only real certainty is unpredictability. Geopolitical volatility means new sanctions regimes could appear almost overnight, and enforcement is becoming more sophisticated. The shipping industry will need to stay agile, invest in data and due diligence tools, and view sanctions compliance as an essential part of responsible and resilient business practice.”
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