UK Rainfall: Are We Getting Near Localised Flood Levels?

Some quick comments from Daniel Bernet, an Associate Director at Insurance Solutions at Moody’s.

• This year has started out to be generally wet in the U.K., however, with large regional differences. While some areas, in particular the Northwest, remained relatively dry, others experienced cumulative rainfall sums that are well above the long-term average for the month of January.
• As per the Met Office, Cornwall even experienced the wettest January on record [Met Office, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/january-2026-regional-weather-stats].
• The above-average precipitation was mainly caused by several extra-tropical cyclones following each other in short succession, with storm Chandra being the most notable storm bringing persistent and heavy rainfall towards the end of January.
• Prolonged and heavy rainfall leads to saturated soils, increased river flows, and, as observed already in Devon, Somerset, South Wales and Northern Ireland, to local flooding. Fortunately, so far, the flood impact has been relatively small. However, with the increased wetness and heightened discharge, further precipitation is more likely to cause more flooding – therefore, the risk of further flooding is not yet averted.
• Thinking about several storms in quick succession bringing record-breaking precipitation and flooding to the U.K. rings a bell – in late 2015 and early 2016, the storms Desmond, Eva, and Frank brought record breaking rainfall across most of the U.K. and led to extensive flooding damaging tens of thousands of properties.
• The current wet spell has many parallels to the winter months in 2015-16, however, with the key difference that the overall magnitude is significantly smaller in 2026, at least so far. While the conditions are extreme locally and regionally this year, in 2015-16, they were generally higher and much more widespread.

• Flood risk is rising as winters grow wetter and stormier. More frequent, back‑to‑back storms keep soils saturated and rivers elevated, so even modest rainfall can trigger significant flooding.