What breaks when GNSS can’t be trusted
Modern ships rely on Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) data – typically derived from GNSS such as GPS. On many vessels, GNSS has effectively become the positional and timing reference spine for multiple bridge and safety systems.
ECDIS, AIS transmissions, GMDSS, radar overlays and autopilot functions all depend on this reference.
However, when GNSS integrity is compromised:
- Navigation accuracy deteriorates. ECDIS positioning may drift; autopilot reliance becomes unsafe.
- Situational awareness degrades. Port authorities, Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) centres and shore security teams receive false AIS tracks. Rendezvous and pilotage become complicated.
- Compliance exposure increases. Manipulated AIS data can create the appearance of sanctions breaches or unauthorised port calls.
- Insurance and commercial risk escalate. War-risk premiums rise, P&I clubs issue advisories and disputes may arise over deviation, delay or cargo claims.
In short, when GNSS fails, the vessel loses its single point of positional truth.
VESON NOTES DROP IN OIL, LNG AND FUTURE FOOD CARGO DELIVERIES
Veson has published new data and analysis on the disruption’s cascading impact across VLCC rates, newbuild ordering, asset values, and across global energy supply chains, including LPG, LNG, and ammonia.
Key highlights:
• Gulf loadings are collapsing, according to new analysis from Senior Content Analyst Rebecca Galanopoulos. Middle East Gulf large tanker loadings from Saudi Arabia dropped from ~80% of total Saudi export volumes throughout 2025 to just ~10% during the week of March 3. Total weekly Saudi large Tanker exports also dropped to c.2.3 mil MT in the same period, suggesting the conflict is already weighing on crude volumes moving through the Gulf.
• Meanwhile, VLCC rates have hit record highs. MEG/China TD3 rates soared to a record $485,959/day as markets price in the risk of Middle East oil shut-ins, while one-year TC rates have surged to nearly $111,000/day — surpassing the highs of the 2020 floating storage boom and up ~41% since the start of the year.
• VLCC newbuild ordering has surged 633% year-on-year. 88 VLCCs were ordered in the three months prior to February 25, at a combined value of $10.4 billion, with newbuilding prices at their highest since 2009. Secondhand sales have also spiked 407%, with Sinokor accounting for 76% of all VLCC transactions so far this year.
• Across the broader energy supply chain, the ripple effects extend well beyond crude oil, Maritime Analyst Jarl Milford wrote in new commentary this week. Around 30% of global LPG and 20% of global LNG are exported from the Middle East, largely bound for Asia. LNG vessel calls at Qatar’s Ras Laffan — which averaged 6–8 calls per day through January and February — have collapsed to near zero following attacks on the facility, with Asian crackers already reducing operating rates and some declaring force majeure.
• Food security and petrochemical supply chains are now at risk. Approximately 25% of global ammonia is exported from the region, with half destined for India. A prolonged disruption could reduce ammonia availability and subsequently threaten food production across Asia, while higher LNG prices risk forcing fuel substitution in countries with limited flexibility to do so.
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