A quick note from Veson on the current situation affecting the tanker market;
The Tanker market is experiencing significant disruption. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz — removing roughly 25% of total seaborne crude and petroleum trade from the market — has sent VLCC earnings to record quarterly levels and triggered an unprecedented wave of newbuilding orders.
New data from Veson Nautical captures the full scope of the shock and what it means for tanker markets.
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VLCC earnings hit record levels at ~$175,000/day in Q1, driven by the Hormuz closure, Sinokor’s aggressive fleet acquisition programme, and sanctions-related supply dynamics; MR Product Tankers averaged ~$36,000/day, with the Atlantic market sharply outperforming the Pacific after China halted oil product exports in March to protect domestic supply.
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The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant market force, having removed approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products from seaborne trade, with no pipeline alternatives capable of compensating for the lost volumes at scale.
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Newbuilding orders surged to record quarterly levels, with Q1 2026 volumes reaching 33.3 million DWT — surpassing Q4 2025’s 27.2 million DWT. Crude Tankers accounted for 90% of Q1 orders, five times the volume placed in Q1 2025, and newbuilding prices for larger crude tankers and medium-sized Product Tankers rose approximately 7% over the quarter.
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The base case forecasts gradual resumption of Middle East flows this summer, with incremental Atlantic Basin shipments toward Asia providing partial demand support; however, if significant oil volumes do not return within months, prolonged price increases and forced demand destruction represent a material long-term risk.
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Fleet growth is set to turn negative in 2026 due to the supply disruption, before deliveries accelerate sharply — the Tanker orderbook now represents 20% of the total fleet, with deliveries expected to nearly double to ~38 million DWT in 2026 and outpace demand growth from 2027 through 2029.
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