This insights piece is by David Hession, Head of Subsidence, Woodgate & Clark
A warmer than average March and balmy start to April have already put 2026 on the radar as a potential surge year for subsidence claims, following record payouts in 2025. But as ever with tree-related subsidence, the real picture will only emerge later in the summer. As the industry faces increasing claims volumes and costs to manage subsidence claims, there is an additional tension to navigate – the general desire to keep healthy, established trees standing for all the climate, health and social benefits they bring.
Most subsidence in the UK is linked, directly or indirectly, to tree root activity. As trees extract moisture from shrinkable clay soils, those soils contract and this can lead to movement beneath buildings and structural damage.
Trees draw up the highest amount of moisture from the ground during the summer months (June to August) when they are in full leaf. This peak uptake is driven by the need for water during the height of the growing season, warmer temperatures, and higher rates of transpiration, where water is released as vapour. If there is no rain, then roots in search of moisture can cause ground movement and subsidence to nearby properties. If we see a dry summer again this year, the conditions for increased ground movement and a corresponding rise in claims will be in place.
The Role of Trees and the Reality of Claims
Establishing causation in subsidence claims involves detailed site investigation, soil analysis, root identification and often monitoring. Critically, tree involvement is proven and not assumed. This is an important point in the wider debate. A common perception is that trees are routinely removed due to subsidence concerns, particularly in London where clay soils dominate. In reality, it is only considered where there is clear, evidence-based linkage between a specific tree and the damage observed—and where other mitigation options are either ineffective or impractical.
A Growing and Misunderstood Tension
Yet, as climate pressures increase, so too does the importance of urban tree cover. Trees are essential for cooling cities, improving air quality, supporting biodiversity and boosting mental health. At the same time, insurers, brokers and adjusters are dealing with increasing subsidence exposure, driven by more frequent and prolonged dry periods.
This creates a growing tension between the need to preserve and expand tree cover and the need to protect homes and businesses from structural damage. Loss adjusters increasingly find themselves at the centre of this tension. Our profession is not just assessing technical causation, but also navigating customer expectations, third parties refusing to co-operate, local authority constraints and more broadly, public sensitivity around tree removal. In many cases, even where evidence is clear, decisions can be challenged or delayed, extending claim lifecycles and increasing costs.
A call for greater transparency
To help ease this tension, there needs to be greater transparency around how subsidence claims are assessed and how decisions on tree management are reached to build trust and tackle the misconception that insurers and adjusters are too quick to attribute blame to trees.
If 2026 does develop into a surge year, the pressure on loss adjusting capacity will be significant and we could see longer validation and settlement times, increased costs of investigation and repair and greater friction with policyholders. This places even greater importance on early and accurate diagnosis, clear communication with customers as well strong collaboration between insurers, adjusters and local authorities.
Yes, trees are vital to climate resilience but properties must be protected from avoidable damage. And in some cases, difficult, evidence-based decisions are unavoidable
For now, all eyes are on the summer ahead. If August is dry, 2026 is likely to see a noticeable increase in subsidence claims and with it, increased pressure on loss adjusters managing complex, sensitive cases. If conditions are more mixed, the immediate impact may be less pronounced. But the underlying trends will remain.
Fundamentally, the role of loss adjusters in balancing technical evidence, customer outcomes and environmental sensitivity will become more central than ever.
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