AI has moved beyond experimentation among exporters and is becoming part of their day-to-day operations. In the 2026 Allianz Trade Global Survey1, less than 1% of exporters say they do not use AI at all. The question is no longer “who will adopt?”, but “who can turn adoption into advantage?”
The new AI leaders are not where you expect
Our survey data reveals a striking paradox. Nearly half of companies (43%) have already deployed AI at scale across multiple functions, yet only a third (32%) say it is fully embedded in their core strategy. That gap matters. Using AI to automate tasks is progress; using it to reshape decisions, products, and routes to market is where competitive advantage lies.
Emerging-market exporters are taking the lead on strategic integration. China (41%), the UAE (40%) and Brazil (36%) lead on making AI central to strategy. Meanwhile, some advanced economies remain more cautious: only 22% of firms in the UK and 21% in Singapore define AI as core. Operational deployment is also widely distributed: Vietnam leads globally in scaled implementation (53%), while Singapore also ranks highly (51%).The new geography of AI is becoming less predictable.
A widening expectations gap
The real divide, however, is not adoption. It is belief. Emerging-market exporters are far more bullish about near-term payoffs, and that confidence appears to be feeding investment. In India, 61% of companies anticipate AI will lift export turnover by 10% or more within 12 months.
Those expectations are dramatically higher than in parts of Europe, where only 18–24% foresee comparable growth impacts. This gap suggests that emerging-market exporters view AI not as incremental efficiency, but as a chance to leapfrog competitors.
Investment is rising but structural barriers constrain expansion
Spending patterns reflect that optimism. In India, 65% of exporters allocate more than 20% of their IT budgets to AI, with Brazil (51%) and the UAE (41%) also committing strongly. Europe, by contrast, remains more restrained: Spain (25%), the UK (26%), and Italy (28%) sit at the lower end of investment intensity.
Across markets, the biggest obstacle to AI investment is neither enthusiasm nor upfront cost but proof of returns. ROI uncertainty is cited by 35% of firms in the UAE, 31% in Singapore and Germany and 30% in the US, indicating that deployment has outpaced measurable returns. Elsewhere, talent is the binding factor. Skills shortages are cited by 31% of firms in China and India, 30% in Vietnam and 28% in France, highlighting a global scramble for AI talent.
A two-speed AI economy ahead
Taken together, these figures suggest a two-speed global landscape. Exporters in India, Brazil and the UAE are adopting AI, committing capital, embedding it strategically and expecting rapid, tangible returns. Their counterparts in Europe and North America, while equally engaged in adoption, are advancing with greater caution, constrained by stricter return thresholds and more incremental expectations.
This divergence may also reflect differing starting points. Lower competitive pressures, higher productivity levels and low risk tolerance can foster less ambitious AI deployment in some advanced economies. For investors and policymakers, the implications are clear. Markets pairing heavy investment with strong expectations may deliver large performance gains, or face sharp disappointment if returns do not match expectations. The next 12 months should reveal whether enthusiasm translates into measurable gains in exports, margins and productivity.
Author: Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO and chairperson of the Board of Management of Allianz Trade
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