The latest data from Geobear for you;
Subsidence enquiries have surged to almost 300 per cent of typical annual levels this year, according to new data from ground engineering specialist Geobear. This summer saw a significant rise in subsidence enquiries, with Geobear recording a 108 per cent increase between 1 and 26 August compared with the same period in 2025, itself a major subsidence surge year. Enquiries were also 61 per cent higher than during the equivalent period in 2022, another year marked by exceptional subsidence activity.
The increase coincides with extreme soil drying developing earlier than during last year’s surge. In South East England and Greater London, Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) crossed Geobear’s 320mm extreme-risk threshold in week 28 of 2026, two weeks earlier than in 2025.
Geobear’s latest postcode data also demonstrates the geographic breadth of the problem. While London and the South East are traditionally among the areas most strongly associated with subsidence, 86 per cent of enquiries represented in Geobear’s 2026 postcode data came from outside London postcode areas.
Otso Lahtinen, CEO of Geobear, said: “What stands out this year is the extraordinary scale of the increase. Subsidence enquiries have reached almost three times what we’d expect in a typical year, and we’re seeing considerably more activity than at the same point during previous surge years. What’s particularly concerning is that extreme ground conditions developed earlier this summer, potentially extending the period in which properties are vulnerable.
“London and the South East remain particularly susceptible because of their geology, but the data also demonstrates that subsidence is not confined to these traditional hotspots. Prolonged dry conditions can expose vulnerabilities wherever susceptible soils occur.”
Ground conditions reached extreme levels earlier
The scale of this year’s increase coincides with particularly severe ground conditions. Geobear’s UK Subsidence Surge Forecast Dashboard monitors SMD as an indicator of the amount of water missing from the soil compared with its fully recharged state. Geobear uses 218mm as an elevated-risk marker and 320mm as an extreme-risk marker.
In 2026, the extreme threshold was crossed in week 28 of the year, compared with week 30 during the 2025 surge. Enquiries were already rising by this point, increasing 23 per cent year on year in July before accelerating further during August.
Lahtinen continued: “Structural movement does not necessarily appear at the same time as a period of hot weather. There can be a lag while soils continue to lose moisture and buildings respond, which means the effects of a particularly dry summer can continue to emerge even once temperatures begin to fall.
“The earlier onset of extreme ground conditions this year helps provide context for the increase in enquiries we have seen.”
Surge could continue into autumn
Despite the arrival of autumn, ground conditions remain at extreme levels. Geobear’s latest monitoring, covering the week ending 13 October, shows deciduous-tree Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) at 332.4mm, the ceiling of the MORECS model.
Rainfall has so far been insufficient to drive meaningful soil recharge. Just 6.9mm of rain was recorded in the latest week, bringing cumulative rainfall since 28 July to approximately 35mm across 11 weeks. SMD has now remained above Geobear’s 320mm extreme-risk threshold for 12 consecutive weeks, with no sustained reduction in sight.
The company says rainfall of at least 20mm per week over multiple consecutive weeks is needed for moisture to penetrate deeper into the soil and begin reversing the deficit. Based on patterns seen during previous subsidence surge years, sustained recharge may not begin until later in the year, potentially prolonging the conditions responsible for this year’s increase in enquiries.
Geobear has forecast that insured subsidence losses between August and November could reach £200 million or more. For context, subsidence claims totalled £307 million in 2025, according to the Association of British Insurers.
Lahtinen concluded: “Moving into autumn doesn’t mean the subsidence risk immediately disappears. The ground responds much more slowly than the weather we experience at the surface.
“September’s rainfall has not yet been enough to meaningfully reverse the moisture deficit built up over the summer. Until we see sustained rainfall over a number of weeks, the conditions that contributed to this year’s increase in enquiries are likely to persist.”
You can keep track of how subsidence is affecting your area by searching your postcode in Geobear’s online risk checker.
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