This article is by Saleem Khan, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Pole Star Global;
Around 90% of world trade travels by sea, much of it through a relatively small number of narrow maritime passages. For shipowners, operators and marine insurers, the risks around those chokepoints are familiar. What is harder to judge is how quickly disruption at one can change conditions elsewhere.
Conflict has disturbed established routes over the past two years, while drought has put pressure on infrastructure that global supply chains depend on. Ships wait, divert or change schedules, with the effects often reaching far beyond the original point of disruption.
Recent Pole Star Global research, using Pole Star Global Zone Traffic data from nine major chokepoints between January 2024 and September 2026, gives a sense of the scale. To provide a like-for-like comparison, the percentage changes compare average daily transits from January to August in each year. Among the clearest shifts, average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz were 64.9% lower between January and August 2026, than over the same period in 2024. Bosporus Strait traffic rose by 176.5% on the same comparison, while Panama Canal traffic was 28.2% higher. Taken together, the figures show how disruption at one major route can reshape traffic and risk elsewhere in the network.
Saleem Khan, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Pole Star Global, explains why a wider view of maritime risk is becoming increasingly important for operators and insurers navigating a more volatile trading environment.
When traffic moves, exposure changes with it
Hormuz and the Bosporus provide the clearest contrast in the data. The figures do not suggest a simple one-for-one movement of vessels from Hormuz to the Bosporus, but Pole Star’s analysis indicates the two shifts may be connected. Established patterns can change quickly when a major route becomes harder to use.
The composition of that traffic matters too. Pole Star’s analysis suggests tankers account for a disproportionate share of the recent increase through the Bosporus, with some ownership structures, flag histories and transmission patterns consistent with shadow fleet activity. That does not explain the entire surge, but it does raise a wider question for operators and underwriters, where a sharp increase in volume may also bring a change in the type of vessels using a route and the risks attached to them.
A diversion may reduce exposure to an immediate threat, but it can add time to a voyage, increase reliance on another constrained passage or place a vessel in a different operating environment. The Associated Press has reported on Gulf producers using alternative pipelines, shuttle services and ship-to-ship transfers to keep oil moving amid disruption around Hormuz. Cargo continues to move, but the routes and operating conditions around it can change considerably.
Panama offers another version of the problem. Daily transits averaged 27.5 in 2024, during the El Niño drought restrictions, before recovering to more than 35 in 2026. Yet the underlying vulnerability remains. The Guardian has reported on renewed restrictions as drought and lower water levels put capacity under pressure again.
Traffic volume only tells part of the story
The quieter figures are revealing for a different reason. Pole Star’s research found that traffic through the Strait of Gibraltar rose from 186.8 in 2024 to 196.1 in 2026, an increase of 4.9%, while English Channel transits rose by 2.9%. Neither suggests a dramatic change in volume.
Gibraltar illustrates why that can be deceptive. Pole Star’s behavioural analysis identified loitering and paired-vessel activity in the western approaches that could be consistent with attempts to obscure cargo origin, with tanker involvement higher than might be expected from the segment’s share of traffic. These patterns warrant closer scrutiny rather than proving wrongdoing in themselves, but they show why a stable headline number can sit alongside a changing risk picture.
There is also the question of what cannot be seen. Pole Star’s transit analysis relies on vessel position reporting, so activity will be understated wherever vessels reduce or suspend transmissions. Hormuz and the Black Sea are among the areas where this matters most. The observed figures are therefore better understood as a floor than a complete total.
For operators and insurers, raw transit numbers become much less useful when the available picture is incomplete or the make-up of traffic has changed beneath a broadly stable total.
Building a fuller view of maritime risk
Assessing that environment calls for more than a single stream of vessel data. AIS remains fundamental to maritime visibility, but its limitations become more important where transmissions are inconsistent. LRIT can provide another reference point, while satellite-derived observations can add context when reported movements and observed activity do not align.
Used together, those sources provide a better basis for judging what a change actually means. Unusual movement may have an entirely routine explanation, while another pattern may justify closer scrutiny. The important part is having enough information to make that distinction with confidence.
This matters most around chokepoints, where the picture can change quickly. Operators and insurers need to be able to see when normal patterns start to shift, and to check those changes against more than one source before making decisions on routing or exposure.
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