Thoughts from the Ed on road safety reality vs anti-speed, anti car travel, activists and politicians.
Is there any convincing data to prove that 20mph vs 30mph limits in areas classed as urban by Councils actually reduces collisions? Well maybe. If you mean that gridlock reduces the chances of collisions by bringing traffic to a 3-8mph average crawl then yes, mission accomplished. But then, does a person failing to make it to hospital because the ambulance was jammed in traffic prove the 20mph limit put their life at risk? You can prove or disprove anything, depending on how you interpret data.
In a wider context, it would take years of collated data, with caveats regarding road conditions at the time, driver experience, unlicensed, or uninsured drivers, or those being pursued by the Police, to be factored into the baseline stats, before any conclusions could be drawn on whether 20mph was inherently safer than 30mph on any given road.
SPEED LIMITS BY WEIGHT ANYONE?
Is a 2400Kgs Tesla, or a hefty Amazon delivery van more likely to seriously injure an earpod wearing pedestrian at 20mph, than a lighter 1000Kgs Nissan Micra at 27mph? Maybe, depends on the exact impact, angle, subsequent impact of the pedestrian with the road surface perhaps. Accidents are often unique, quite random in their outcome once a vehicle hits something, or someone. But assuming you had say 40 or 50 incidents of data, you might deduce that heavier vehicles carry more mass, more inertia. Therefore the EV, van or SUV car weighing 2000Kgs plus should be travelling slower than 20mph, so we need separate speed limits by weight of vehicle.
Yep, it sounds ridiculous. Unenforceable too. But you see how data can be manipulated to get the outcome you desire for a political point-scoring game?
This is the trouble with the “20 is Plenty” activist campaign, it assumes every collision is somehow the same in terms of potential impact, at a given speed. But real life isn’t a Thatcham lab where everything is controlled. The reason that collisions occur are complex, often to do with not paying close attention to the road conditions, other vehicles, driver reaction time, visibility at junctions and other hazards.
That lack of driver attention is not affected in any way by lowering the limit, except that it increases the odds of someone checking their phone for messages, Facebook updates or some other distraction. In some respects 20mph is seen as being a safer speed for checking on-screen updates than 30mph by some risk-taking drivers. Delivery drivers looking for Sat Nav addresses and maps may feel a 20mph limit offers more time to double-check for parking spots, missed junctions, places to pull a U-turn etc.
If you want to prevent accidents, you must first understand human nature.
WHAT WE KNOW VS ASSUMPTIONS
One thing we do know is that some 40 million vehicles are on UK roads, yet the number of killed, or seriously injured road users is stable, disregarding the low traffic volumes of 2020, the peak of the Covid19 madness. In fact the trend is down long term over decades, despite a quadrupling of the vehicle parc in the UK since the 1970s.
The primary reason is that cars are much safer now, with ADAS features, ABS brakes, cameras etc. Plus impact absorbtion materials and better safety standards on crumple zones, bumper flex and airbags in the cabin all protect people better than ever in a collision with another moving, or solid object.
Next up is the cultural change from a pub/club culture in the 60s and 70s to one where many sections of the population don’t drink alcohol at all, or rarely venture out to socialise with other people, preferring online channels. That means a massive reduction in drink driving, per head of population. On the downside, there is a growing cadre of under 40s who enjoy driving under the influence of recreational drugs – and worryingly, see nothing wrong with it.
For insurers, the downside of hi-tech cars is that recovery and repair has become a more time-consuming and expensive process compared to the recent past. Especially for hybrid and EV cars. But on the upside, fewer road collisions per capita of road users can only be a good thing, regardless of arbitary speed limits. The fact is that incidents are heading downwards if you cross reference the accident stats against the growing number of vehicles on the roads, by a huge margin.
Photo; Pexels stock
THE UNINSURED RACERS
There are an estimated 2 million uninsured drivers on the roads. Many alter numberplates, or clone legal car plates to avoid ULEZ charges, speeding tickets and Polcie attention. Then there is a culture in certain areas of illegal street races, especially at weekends. They don’t care if the limit is 20, 30 or even 120mph. They are there to test the limits of their BMW 3 series remap. To resolve that issue requires dedicated Police teams and political will to deal with accusations of racism, cultural or religious discrimination.
POTHOLES AND ROAD COLLAPSE
The plague of potholes is well documented. Poor road repairs can also cause accidents via loss of grip during wet weather, or damage steering and suspension which in turn, leads to an accident next time there is an emergency. It’s no use pointing the finger at drivers and asking them to constantly replace £1200 steering systems, or fit new shocks and wheel rims at a cost of ££1500-£2000 every two years. Fix the roads, make them safer.
By the way, cyclists need the holes fixing too and the drainage grids need levelling to the road surface as well – it is potentially fatal to hit a sunken grid at 20mph on a bicycle in the dark. Councils and Highways Agency decision-makers should not be getting away with failing to fix extremely dangerous sections of roads. Insurers should campaign to end public sector immunity from prosecution on this issue, same for Smart Motorways and the deaths they cause.
Bad roads can cost lives, just as much as bad drivers. Let’s get real.
THE WALES EXPERIMENT
Wales has recently seen a reversal in the 20mph default setting, as politicans there realise it may unseat them at the next election. Assuming they return to power, expect the promises to reset urban limits to 30mph to be broken. That’s what politicians – of all parties – do, they break promises. What’s more interesting in Wales is the blanket 40mph on many scenic roads, enforced by average speed cameras. Whether the data over say a decade will prove that this stops the illegal racing contingent, or simply drives them to be more shrewd in regard to disguising a vehicle’s identity, remains to be seen.
One thing a blanket 40mph on rural roads will do is exacerbate the traffic jams on scenic roads on sunny weekends, since nobody dares overtake a caravan or tractor – but then maybe that’s the intended outcome? It also reduces the damage caused by the deliberate neglect of the roads, since vehicles are hitting potholes at lower speeds.
For insurers, collating accident data, at a granular level, with driver age, points, banned or legal, drugs, Police pursuit, junction, cycle lane, medical emergency, weather conditions etc is essential, since you can’t detect a pattern of accident reduction – or increase – without spotting common points of reference. Let’s hope the local Police Forces actually log the data in each serious collision accurately, otherwise everything is simply opinion and hearsay.
RAC COMMENT
Meanwhile here are some thoughts from the RAC;
Reacting to the Welsh Government’s reversion of its 20mph speed limit on certain local roads, RAC road safety spokesperson Rod Dennis said: “This decision will please a great many drivers in Wales, but it’s a shame so many roads that should have always remained at 30mph were unnecessarily converted to 20mph.
“More public money now needs to be spent changing signs back at time when funds are already stretched. We are very supportive of 20mph limits being implemented in places where there’s a greater presence of pedestrians and cyclists as they are proven to reduce road casualties, but when used on roads that are clearly better suited to 30mph, there’s a risk drivers don’t obey the limit and their effectiveness is undermined.
“Among those who admit to speeding on 20mph roads, RAC research shows half (50%) of drivers say they do so because they feel the limit is inappropriate. This compares to just 28% of drivers who say they exceed the 30mph limit for the same reason.”
Finally, speed in itself poses no danger. The planet we are all on is spinning at a heady 1,000mph at the Equator. Bit slower in Chipping Sodbury. If it slows, we all die. Thank you, go steady.
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