A new report from leading trade-credit insurer, Atradius UK, outlines the most promising emerging markets for international trade this year.
Uruguay, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar, and Taiwan have been named by Atradius as bright spots for trade in 2022. In its Promising Markets economic report, Atradius predicts that these five markets will offer lucrative opportunities for investors and exporters this year. As it stands, all five markets are recovering well from the pandemic and their outlooks are generally protected from Covid-19 following low infection rates and/or an extensive vaccination rollout.
James Burgess, Head of Commercial for Atradius UK, commented: “After more than two years dealing with the repercussions of COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns and restrictions on the global economy, it’s positive to see some economies around the world learning to live with the virus. This resumption of economic activity means that 2022 is looking much more promising than 2021, but supply chain disruptions, soaring inflation and the reversal of monetary stimulus will continue to challenge international trade in 2022.
“While researching this years’ report, we tried to follow a similar methodology to last year and take factors such as economic performance, macroeconomic strength and the COVID-19 situation into consideration. The promising emerging markets identified by Atradius are well positioned to emerge with good growth prospects across several sectors with favourable business conditions.”
Promising emerging markets for 2021:
- Uruguay: With a 3% growth in GDP forecast, Uruguay’s economy looks to exceed its pre-crisis levels in 2022. Though Latin America has been the hardest hit region by the pandemic, Uruguay’s successful vaccination rollout has ensured a stable recovery. As a result, tourism continues to support growth in the country. The food industry is also benefitting from a rise in exports in agriculture and meat production. To keep up with this demand, developments in the machinery industry are likely and authorities are looking to invest in the renewable energy sector.
- Côte d’Ivoire: According to Atradius researchers, Côte d’Ivoire is expected to experience some of the highest GDP growth rates in the world over the coming years. Côte d’Ivoire is a major agricultural producer, leading the world in exports of cocoa beans and cashews, with opportunities in IT services growing due to demand to ensure a more sustainable economic growth model. This move to sustainable energy could also mean that the renewable energy sector could offer some of the best prospects for exporters.
- Israel: Over 70% of the population has received two shots of the vaccine and it is the first country to start rolling out a fourth dose. Israel’s developed economy offers opportunities in the high-tech goods and services industries, with a particular emphasis on the aerospace sector. In addition to this, authorities have announced ambitious plans to have all new cars be electric by 2030, offering equally bright opportunities within the electric vehicle (EV) transport sector.
- Qatar: Qatar’s economy is highly dependent on the hydrocarbon sector and higher oil and gas prices are due to support economic growth to the tune of 3.6% in 2022. Increased demand in the EU due to ongoing political risks has further buoyed Qatar’s predicted gains. The renewable energy sector is also increasingly important as Qatar has set the goal of attaining 20% of its energy from solar power by 2030. Hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup will help boost opportunities in the tourism and hospitality industry.
- Taiwan: The outlook for businesses in Taiwan is positive, supported by good infrastructure, advanced manufacturing capabilities and a high level of innovation, especially in the technology sector. The worldwide chip shortage looks to persist throughout 2022, providing ongoing opportunities in this sector. Moreover, high-tech services is an increasingly important sector driven by the shifting consumer behaviour towards more digital adoption.
James Burgess, Head of Commercial for Atradius UK, added: “Although the pandemic continues to disrupt global trade, we are beginning to see gradual and prolonged economic recovery. Having compared and evaluated success over the past year in a variety of sectors, it’s apparent that the renewable energy, technology, and transport sectors pose a number of opportunities. Success in these industries will depend on how well businesses adapt to change and demand and whether they have a comprehensive risk management plan.”
For more information and a suite of free economic, payment and country reports, visit the publications pages of the Atradius website https://atradius.co.uk You can also follow @AtradiusUK on Twitter and AtradiusUK on LinkedIn.