Let’s Separate Claims Costs From Climate Agenda Politics

Straight up catastrophe claims fact-checking from the Editor’s keyboard;

A series of winter storms in Europe, unprecedented flooding in Australia and South Africa as well as a high number of thunderstorms in the US and Europe resulted in USD 35 billion of insured losses from natural catastrophes in the first half of 2022, according to Swiss Re Institute’s preliminary estimates.

Swiss Re again noted; “The record-high temperatures in many parts of Europe may lead to further losses caused by droughts and wildfires. The severe weather events of the past six months once again highlight that natural catastrophes, particularly secondary perils, are increasing in frequency and severity in all regions.”

Martin Bertogg, Head of Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re, puts the blame on climate change:

“The effects of climate change are evident in increasingly extreme weather events, such as the unprecedented floods in Australia and South Africa. This confirms the trend we have observed over the last five years, that secondary perils are driving insured losses in every corner of the world. Unlike hurricanes or earthquakes, these perils are ubiquitous and exacerbated by rapid urbanisation in particularly vulnerable areas. Given the scale of the devastation across the globe, secondary perils require the same disciplined risk assessment as primary perils such as hurricanes.”

FACT CHECK ON STORMS

But is the claim by Swiss Re that climate change is causing more severe winter storms, or wildfires, actually true, or are insured losses increasing because of increasing population in Europe, increasing claims costs, hyper-inflation and man-made arson?

Bad weather, or winter storms as the Met Office likes to call them, happen every year across Europe. It’s been that way since the end of the last ice age some 11,500 years ago. Nobody knows what caused that global warming event by the way, but it certainly wasn’t diesel cars or plastic straws.

In February 2022, a series of winter storms hit Europe and prompted estimated ( by Swiss Re) insured losses of USD 3.5 billion.

Back in 2018/19 just one storm, Adrian, racked up losses of £2.9 billion or $3.5 billion (source Wikipedia). So even though the cost of repairing property, replacing cars washed away, restoring power supplies, cleaning flooded streets etc was cheaper four years ago, ONE storm racked up the same insured losses as a series of storms in Feb 2022.

Now if climate change was causing more storms and they were more severe each winter, then the claims bill per storm would just keep rising, right? But the fact is you cannot make general assumptions about the weather, it is inherently unpredictable. The Met Office cannot even predict it with any accuracy beyond 24 hours. Anyone who says that winter weather is getting progressively more severe over time, or that localised incidents of bad weather will inevitably cause higher insured losses, isn’t seeing the bigger picture – and who knows, maybe that limited vision is deliberate?

Photo; Hants Fire Service

CLIMATE BASED WILDFIRES? NO, PEOPLE WERE ARSON ABOUT

During the recent three day heatwave in the North of the UK, viewers watched the BBC shouting about climate change as several fires blazed near London and across the south of England, even the Midlands and Yorkshire. The culprit was climate change, said the BBC – as they generally do when any catastrophe happens.

But was that true?

In Dorset the Fire Service investigation concluded a heathland fire was started deliberately. In Sussex the local Fire Service noted that some 60 fires had been started deliberately during hot weather and the schools closing for summer holidays. I could go on for another three paragraphs but the cause is always the same; suspected arson.

Even the BBC had to admit recently that a major fire in Hampshire had been started deliberately, despite blaming climate change for wildfires just a week previously.

“The record-breaking heatwave, with 40C peaks, came during a prolonged spell of dry weather – and that dried out gardens, verges and green spaces. That helped to spark the kind of blazes more commonly seen in the countryside.” – said the BBC Science pages in late July. That was a pack of lies as it turned out, since almost EVERY wildfire in the UK during July was started deliberately. Man made arson. Simple as that.

Let’s hope that insurers are not including wildfires in their natural catastrophe, or climate related insured losses figures, because if so, that would be an untrue statement of fact. Bit like me saying I crashed my car due to climate change, it would never stand up in court.

POPULATION GROWTH = MORE ASSETS DAMAGED EACH WINTER

There is another basic human fact to consider in calculating winter storm losses; population expansion. This means more roads, schools, hospitals, workplaces, houses etc. It seems obvious, but insurers keen on promoting the climate agenda rarely mention the simple fact that more human activity also means more insured assets lost, more displaced persons, ruined businesses and demolished housing etc. thus increasing the cost of every winter storm season. If there were fewer people and buildings in the way of the winter weather back in 1980 then the insured losses would be less, wouldn’t they?

The population of Europe (assuming an eastern border including Balkans & Ukraine) was estimated at 354 million back in 1960. By 1980 that had grown to 692 million. In 2022 we have an estimated European population of 743 million, (source Statista ) driven mainly by mass migration from the developing world over the last two decades. Without that migration, Europe would probably have a population of around 650 million, due to declining birth rates, and thus, reduced claims costs.

Maybe insurers should start campaigning against mass migration to stem winter weather related claims losses? See how that plays out on Twitter.

New houses on flood plains equals more claims in the future. That’s a man made policy decision.

LONGER AND GREENER CLAIMS SETTLEMENT PROCESS

Another primary cause of increasing claims costs is the longer timeframe of repair. Every task has potential risks and so working at height, in water, near power lines, demolishing houses, opening roads again after a flood – every job – now carries a raft of regulation which extends the life of that claim. The storms and floods of the 1970s were dealt with quicker, and with greater risk to life, because that was the working culture of the era.

It’s also true that in the past many older buildings or cars might have been repaired after a flood event, but are now written off. This is mainly because of climate change policies by politicians. It’s seen as doing the right thing to build new from the ground up; heat pumps, digital sensors in every room, connected gadgets, no garage no driveway etc. That takes time and during those months of waiting the claims costs keep ticking over like a taxi meter. Going greener on weather related property claims means more costs long term and that isn’t being driven by the climate, it’s a man-made policy agreed by politicians and major insurers.

In short, if you do not look at the data in a 360 degree view, you cannot understand the true causation of rising costs in each series of winter storm events. Once you do look at the socio-economic politics underpinning domestic property claims, you see one more reason why insured losses have risen – and will keep rising. The process of settling the claim is more costly in time and materials, even though the cause is exactly the same as it was 30 years previously; winter weather.

“All of our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder – and ultimately impossible – to solve with ever more people.” Sir David Attenborough

THE GLOBALIST ENDGAME

As globalist Bill Gates, and naturalist David Attenborough have noted, the way to save the planet is to reduce the population and the WEF has already set out its policy of forcing people to “own nothing and be happy.” Thus the excuse of climate change is being used as a stick to beat the population with and encourage less travel, no vehicle ownership, colder housing as carbon fuels are banned, higher food costs as arable land is colonised by housing and infrastructure for the ever-growing population.

The globalist endgame is no asset ownership and depopulation. That means less insurance needed. The world government will take care of everything, free furlough cash, UBI and energy bill refunds all round. Insurers who jump on the climate bandwagon must surely be aware that they are hastening their own bankruptcy, since the abolition of the concept of ownership, of personal responsibility itself, will mean most insurance brands will be as useless as a 15 year old car battery by 2050?

My prediction is that removing the concept of ownership goes against human nature. At some point globalist actions like land grabs, demolishing houses to make cycle paths or seizing cars, will have severe consequences in terms of crime, civil disorder and attacks upon the globalist elite who seek to accrue more assets for themselves by enforcing climate driven laws and regulations. As they impoverish the 80 percent, globalists will find those who are asset-stripped feel they have nothing to lose. Therefore, insurers who support globalism and the climate change narrative need to be aware that they risk everything; the financial future of their companies and the safety of their staff, by encouraging more social division and hatred, via climate fearmongering and finger pointing. Playing the tribal game of divide and rule didn’t end well for the Roman, Nazi or Soviet empires. It won’t end well for the Globalist empire either.

FINAL THOUGHT

Let’s wrap up longer, more risk-averse claims processing with population growth, add in some deliberate arson, plus globalist inflation and supply chain shortages post pandemic. You have a perfect storm – and it’s all man-made.

Ultimately, insurance is a contract built on trust. If you cannot trust the data being peddled on the true causes of winter weather claims or wildfires, why would you believe anything else insurers were telling you?

 

 

 

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About alastair walker 9297 Articles
20 years experience as a journalist and magazine editor. I'm your contact for press releases, events, news and commercial opportunities at Insurance-Edge.Net

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