This piece is by Caroline Elliott-Grey, Senior Product Manager, U.K. and Ireland, LexisNexis Risk Solutions, Insurance
Heat related risks are intensifying in the UK – it’s not just subsidence, insurance providers also need to be concerned about wildfire risks as a series of significant wildfires including those in East London, Dorset, Wiltshire, Yorkshire and Scotland put pressure on already stretched resources. In a media statement from the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) in August, the Chair, Phil Garrigan, said: “Climate change is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and wildfires are no longer a seasonal threat; they are a persistent and growing risk to life, property, and the environment.”
Prior to this summer, 2022 was a record-setting year for wildfires in England and Wales, with 983 incidents meeting the NFCC definition. However, 2025 is on track to beat the national record for wildfires. In England and Wales alone, there have been 856 wildfires so far this year, (as of 12 August 2025) and by the end of July, wildfire numbers were 663% higher than the same period last year (1 January – 31 July).
The Drivers Behind the Surge
The UK saw its warmest and sunniest spring on record this yeariii. Then we had four separate heatwaves pushing temperatures beyond 30°Civ. The sorry state of grass in gardens, parks and fields makes it easy to understand how these conditions have left moorlands, grasslands, hedgerows, and woodlands blanketed with highly combustible parched vegetation. All it might take is an ember from a campfire, lit cigarette butt or piece of glass to start a wildfire.
The NFCC has cautioned that the UK’s fire seasons are shifting, with more incidents expected near the rural-urban interface. It has also highlighted the lack of a long-term funding model or national wildfire strategy. The risks are real: in 2022, a wildfire spread across 40 hectares, damaging 17 houses, five garages, 12 stables, a car repair workshop and several vehicles, as well as numerous sheds and outbuildings. Just a few weeks ago, homes were evacuated in Dagenham and Dorset due to wildfire risks.
Wildfire Patterns Hidden in the Data
Wildfire activity does not always happen in the midst of summer though. For instance, LexisNexis® Risk Solutions’ analysis shows that spring is often riskier than summer. In 2019, there were over 1,600 spring wildfires compared to just 400 in summer. Data also shows certain dates such as 5th November (Bonfire Night) and 12 July in Northern Ireland (Orangeman’s Day) can give rise to wildfire risks.
The Role of Insurance and Data
Ultimately, insurance providers need to adapt to this growing risk. The LexisNexis® Wildfire Risk Indicator helps predict the risk of a wildfire and indicates whether the location is at high, medium or low risk. Wildfire risk is based on observations of fires from space. A long time series of these datasets provides a good indicator of how prone an area is to wildfire. Filtering on the amount of fires that have occurred near a property, the risk is then segmented into classes.
This data can be ingested at the point of quote via LexisNexis Informed Quotes – a single access point to a broad range of perils datasets or overlaid in map form in LexisNexis® Map View – an underwriting and exposure management software platform. This means insurance providers can easily visualise the risk of a wildfire on a single property or a whole book of business, across the lifetime of the policy. By integrating wildfire data with other perils including flood, windstorms and subsidence, the characteristics of the property and proximity to fire stations, insurance providers can strengthen perils risk models, identify vulnerable regions, and more accurately assess exposure at both the property and portfolio level.
Preparing for the Future
The UK is moving into an era where wildfires are no longer exceptional events but an increasingly common seasonal hazard, closer to those seen in southern Europe. While authorities work on prevention strategies and response capabilities, insurance providers can play a vital role in protecting policyholders by leveraging geospatial intelligence data. Doing so supports fairer pricing, sharper underwriting, and stronger resilience in the face of a growing environmental threat.
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