Iran: New Report Looks at Dry Bulk Impact

Here’s some info on dry bulk issues from Veson;

The dry bulk market is feeling the impact of recent global shifts, from the conflict in Iran to the opening of Guinea’s Simandou mine and evolving US-China trade tensions. Veson Nautical’s latest Market Insights report, “Dry Bulk Finds Growth Amid Global Uncertainty in 2026,” offers a timely deep dive into the segment’s strong start to the year and what the months ahead could hold. 

Key takeaways: 

• Soybean trade revived by US-China trade truce: After halting all US soybean purchases in 2025 and redirecting demand to South America, China committed to purchasing 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually for three years. Veson cargo booking data shows US-to-China agricultural shipments surged from near zero in September to roughly 1 million tonnes per month by the turn of the year. 

• Guinea’s Simandou mine shakes up global ton-mile demand: Though seaborne iron ore volumes are forecast to decline 1.2% in 2026 due to China’s contracting steel output, the emergence of the Simandou iron ore mine is expected to boost iron ore ton-mile demand by 2.7%, driven by the substantially longer sailing distance from Guinea to China compared to traditional Australian routes.   

• The green transition drives a bauxite boom: China’s rapid expansion in solar panel and EV production drove a 27% surge in Chinese bauxite imports in 2025, the primary raw material used in aluminum production. Guinea emerged as the dominant supplier following Indonesia’s 2023 export ban, with bilaterial bauxite trade jumping 35% last year, further buoying dry bulk demand, particularly in the Capesize segment.  

• Decarbonization and self-sufficiency weigh on coal: Seaborne steam coal trade fell ~5% in 2025 as China’s renewable capacity surpassed coal for the first time and domestic production hit a record 4.8 billion tonnes. A further 1% decline is forecast for 2026, partially offset by growing demand across Southeast Asia. 

• Freight rates and vessel values are already reflecting optimism ahead: Capesize vessels averaged $21,250/day in January 2026 — 72% above the 10-year average for the month — while Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize rates all exceeded their decade averages by double digits. Ten-year-old Capesize vessels appreciated nearly 30% in value during 2025.