Some insights and commentary from LMA, McKenzie Intelligence, the NOAA and others;
The Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA) hosted a storm season event led by McKenzie Intelligence Services (MIS) last week to mark the start of the official hurricane season for North America in 2026.
The LMA briefing, with presentations from meteorologist Tomasz Schafernaker and McKenzie Intelligence Services, highlighted that 2026 has an unusually high chance of seeing lower than normal hurricane activity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a US government body, predicts the outlook at 55% probability of below-normal activity with just a 10% chance of a higher-than-normal season.
This is a rare prediction. Since 1995, there have been 22 hurricane seasons with above-normal activity, including ten “hyper-active” seasons, showing how unusual this outlook is.
The NOAA’s expectation for this year is as follows:
- 8-14 named storms
- 3-7 hurricanes
- 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3 excess 111mph – category 5 157mph sustained)
One of the keys to likely activity is warm sea surface temperatures (SST). For example, in 2020, the most active year on record, there were 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes and six major hurricanes – all driven by very warm sea surface temperatures.
However, while SST in Atlantic are currently very warm, the developing El Nino conditions are likely to counteract this and point to this season being less active. Some uncertainty remains in the predictions, largely influenced by the difficulty of predicting the El Nino effect. With high sea surface temperatures, El Nino needs to be strong to counteract the effect, although it is showing signs of strengthening.
NOAA considers all available prediction models when publishing its assessment, including the published 2026 seasonal hurricane forecasting by Colorado State University (CSU).
We can’t be complacent
Janine Powell, Claims Director, Lloyd’s Market Association, commented: “It only takes one major hurricane to make landfall have devastating effects. Even a below-normal season can produce one life-changing storm, causing billions in economic damage and upending communities and livelihoods. Think back to 1992’s Hurricane Andrew. This enormous storm occurred in a season predicted to be below normal and Andrew was the most damaging storm to hit the US in decades.”
The impact of climate change
“The pattern that has emerged in more recent years is that of storms forming later and then developing into major hurricanes more quickly. This change of pace means communities have less time to prepare or evacuate and the storms cause greater devastation when they hit. For example, Hurricane Melissa in 2025 rapidly intensified to a devasting category 5 storm in just 39 hours, with catastrophic consequences for Jamaica and preliminary estimates putting the economic loss of the damage at US$6-7bn (GBP4.5-5.2bn).”
Better data is making extreme weather forecasting more accurate
Forecasting storms is difficult but advancements in meteorological models like Google DeepMind’s WeatherNext 2 are now making long-range forecasting more accurate. These models help give people more time to prepare for major storms by combining data streams in a new way, for example, bringing together wind data, sea temperature data and high-altitude weather patterns, to create real understanding of how these interact to create weather patterns.
Janine Powell added: “Insurers can (and many do) use the wealth of data they have from past events to create actionable insights to help educate people to take steps to keep themselves, homes and businesses as safe as possible. As a market, we have prepared as best we can to respond to our (re)insureds in the face of significant weather pattern changes. Over the last few years, we’ve invested in technology solutions to speed up our response to claims, helping us put money in the hands of customers when they need it the most.”
The nature and degree of damage resulting from natural catastrophes like hurricanes and wildfires can increasingly be reliably mapped by technology solutions like McKenzie Intelligence Services’ Global Events Observer (GEO) product. When these are overlaid with risk level data and augmented with ground source intelligence, it provides a reasonably accurate assessment of the damage zones.
Tomasz Schafernaker, Meteorologist and BBC Weather Presenter, commented: “Predicting hurricane activity in any season is always a challenge. Even during a quiet season, there is always the risk of a powerful hurricane, particularly towards the end of the season and closer to land. While the Atlantic may see a quieter season, the ongoing El Niño is already contributing to a higher-than-normal tropical cyclone risk along the Pacific coast of North and Central America in 2026.”
Be the first to comment