Storms and their impact continue to be a big concern for insurance brands. This article by Jonathan Jackson, CEO of Previsico looks at the challenges in-depth, and how early alerts can help minimise the risks for insurers and policyholders alike.
The impact of recent flooding following Storm Bert, swiftly followed by Storm Darragh, have highlighted just how important sufficient warnings and mitigation measures are when it comes to dealing with extreme weather.
With hundreds of homes left under water, roads turned into rivers, these storms clearly caused plenty of damage and disruption. With Storm Bert, just a day after it hit, weather forecasters and politicians came under fire for not providing adequate warnings about its potential impact.
The headlines with Storm Darragh were mostly about the powerful winds, but it too caused significant flooding, with tens of thousands of homes left without power. These catastrophic events show that we have a long way to go in dealing with such floods, from both river and surface water, the latter of which accounts for 60% of flooding.
At present the UK’s lack of preparedness is leaving communities vulnerable to the unpredictability of the weather without proper mitigation measures in place.
Providing better forecasts
Whilst the MET office did provide 48 advance warnings about Storm Bert, in some parts of Wales only a yellow warning was issued by the Met Office, which was insufficient to clarify its severity.
The subsequent flooding was caused by both strong winds and very heavy rain. As it turned out, the Met Office reported 171.6mm of rain between midnight on 23 November and midnight on 25 November in the region, which is nearly equivalent to its entire average monthly rainfall. This demonstrated key vulnerabilities that the UK has in terms of response and deployment strategies.
It is important to understand that improved technology can now play a more pivotal role in improving flood forecasting, enhancing the accuracy of predictions and subsequent flood mitigation activities. By leveraging a range of new data sources, including IoT sensors, rainfall, river levels, and others, we can get a much more precise picture to understand flood risks.
Further, advanced hydrological modeling can collect data on the flow of water during rainfall events. This, combined with modeling software, can more accurately forecast floods in a timely and localised manner, including for surface water floods.
Using early warning systems
Early warning systems are critical when it comes to mitigating flood risks, offering several key benefits that can significantly reduce the impact of floods on communities and infrastructure.
With sufficient advance warnings, communities can implement flood action plans, which can not only reduce economic losses, but can also save lives.
In South Wales alone during Storm Bert, Previsico’s model was able to show the river levels rising, in some parts by over 3 metres. And, overall, Previsico delivered 152 surface flooding warnings to give people time to prepare.
Early warning systems like Previsico’s can help minimise property damage and prevent damage to critical infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and utilities. It also helps in reducing the environmental impact of flooding.
Early warnings systems also help with targeted response solutions. With more accurate data, emergency responders can focus their efforts on high-risk areas, ensuring that resources are deployed where they are most needed, improving business efficiencies and budget planning.
And finally, early warning systems engage people, fostering a culture of resilience and proactive risk management, which in turn strengthens communities’ resilience.
Assessing impacts post event
Now that we’ve weathered these storms, it’s crucial to take a step back and assess the full impact they had. While they have passed, the real value lies in understanding the consequences, from the extent of flooding to the disruption of local infrastructure and communities. By analysing post-event data, we can now understand more about how similar flooding impacts will occur in the future.
This also helps us to understand how well our systems and responses held up, so we can identify strengths and weaknesses in our preparedness and response strategies.
This post-event evaluation is an essential part of planning for future events. It helps us learn from the challenges we faced, whether it’s improving flood forecasting (as with Previsico’s new Instacasting solution), enhancing early warning systems, or bolstering storm defense measures.
Ultimately, each storm provides an opportunity to refine our risk management and build more resilient systems. By applying the lessons learned from both Storms Bert and Darragh, we can better prepare for future storms, reducing the impact on businesses, communities, and people.
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