The Human Cost of Covid-19

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. The latest update covers week 3 of 2021 (16 to 22 January) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 2 February 2021.

The key points of this update are:

• The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 3 of 2021 was 6,428 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 3 of 2019; equivalent to 52% more deaths than expected. The corresponding figure for week 2 was 39% more deaths than expected.
• There have been around 91,900 more deaths than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 22 January 2021. Of these, 31,200 have occurred in the second wave.
• The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 8,422 in week 3 of 2021, compared to 7,245 in week 2 of 2021.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “Excess deaths continue to rise. In week 3, death rates were more than 50% higher than we would normally expect to see at this time of year. This level of excess deaths was only exceeded during the peak of the first wave of the pandemic.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

There’s more background on the ONS stats, including the grouping of flu and pneumonia as co-causes of death, alongside Covid, plus the regional variations in casualty rates, here.