It isn’t just oil or gas, trade is suffering global stress after a heatwave summer, fires and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Some interesting data here from Atradius;
Highlights
- Claims overall are down -16% MoM after last month’s peak, but 8% higher than August last year and are still elevated by 10% over the last three months
- Claims in the finance sector are up 67% MoM and up 30% compared to the same period last year (Jan-Aug 2025 vs 2026)
- Claims in the services sector are also up 45% MoM, the second consecutive rise, and 10% higher than August 2025
- Claims in the electronics sector have risen for the second month in a row (29%)
- Claims in construction continue to climb, up 7% MoM and 23% up on the previous three months
- Claims in agriculture (-38%), consumer goods (-46%) and food (-22%) are down MoM, despite being elevated over the previous three months (73%+, 25%+ and 27% respectively)
August 2026 Summary
August’s 16% fall in claims looks more like a retreat from July’s peak than a clear easing in payment pressure, with volumes still 8% above August last year and 10% higher over the latest three months. This is happening against a relatively stable insolvency backdrop: company insolvencies in England and Wales were 3% lower year on year in August and the rolling insolvency rate fell to 50.1 per 10,000 companies, from 52.5 a year earlier. The two trends are not necessarily at odds. Trade credit claims can arise from protracted non-payment as well as formal insolvency, meaning claims can reflect cash-flow and payment stress among buyers that are feeling pressure but have not failed outright. Higher trading activity or exposure can also influence monthly volumes.
The pressure also looks increasingly sector-specific. Construction claims rose another 7% in August and are 23% higher over the latest three months, consistent with wider strain in the sector: construction accounted for 17% of formal insolvencies with an industry recorded in the 12 months to August—the largest share—while output fell 0.5% in the three months to July.
Finance is another area to watch, with claims up 67% month on month and 30% year to date. Services and electronics have also recorded consecutive increases, although this is not simply a story of falling economic activity: services output grew 0.6% in the three months to July, while computer, electronic and optical manufacturing rose 3.9%, suggesting the claims increases may be concentrated among particular businesses or reflect payment pressures within otherwise growing sectors.
Conversely, the falls in consumer goods and food claims coincide with firmer retail demand, with sales volumes up 0.9% over the latest three months and 2.4% year on year. Overall, the picture is less one of broad-based business failure and more one of pockets of payment stress emerging across specific sectors.
What does the data show?
The data shows changes in the volume of insurance claims by suppliers and businesses against non-payment or delayed payment for goods or services sold on credit terms (e.g. a retailer failing to pay a goods wholesaler for produce sold on credit).
Failure to pay on time is usually linked to commercial risks (insolvency, default) and macro-economic risks (politics, war, natural disasters, weather etc.).
When is this data from?
The data represents claims received by Atradius in August 2026.
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