From the Editor’s laptop;
So May loses another vote and MPs of all persuasions seem unhappy with the proposed Brexit deal. No surprise as in reality, it never lets the UK actually leave the regulatory orbit of the EU, which was the idea all along of course – some may say.
But as the Romans once asked, Quo Vadis?
A general election? Hardly likely as no party can see a chance to win a clear majority, and more importantly if they won an election, who would lead that bid to re-negotiate a potential agreement, from scratch, with the EU? Jeremy Corbyn and John MacDonnell, would be a mere starter to the likes of Barnier, before they devoured Keir Starmer for the main course. From the Tory camp Rees-Mogg or Boris Johnson seem like fringe figures, unable to command a broad base of support. The Scots Nats and DUP have their own particular agendas in all this backstabbing, so don’t expect any type of workable coalition with them involved.
There is no doubt that Brussels seeks to shackle the UK economy in every sly way possible, via tariffs, pettifogging rules and a painfully glacial speed when it comes to any free trade agreement.
For the insurance industry the danger lies in the ambitions that Frankfurt and Paris both harbour in terms of eclipsing London as the premier finance centre in Europe. That may well happen, to a degree, but it is a long term project. In a globalised marketplace, with AI software setting acturial tables, rates, and settling claims, the cartel-like dreams of Juncker and Barnier may well perish on the bright horizon of truly automated financial services. Soon, you won’t need huge offices to host legions of legal staff, claims analysts, or marketing experts – AI will do it for you, on the fly, and in the Cloud.
Get Used to The EU, We Are Never Leaving
As I’ve said since the 2016 Referendum, we will NEVER leave the EU, it will not be permitted. We will always pay for market access, always follow key regulations, migration will continue indefinitely.
There is no political will to change things fundamentally, because too many millionaires like Tony Blair depend upon a globalist government superceding the existing ragbag of Western democracies, but that’s a side issue. People will eventually get weary of the endless arguments regarding Brexit, realise it is a lost cause, and simply stop moaning about it. After a few years of squabbling, I have no doubt that the UK will have re-apply for membership in 2022 or therabouts, and have to grovel to accept onerous terms.
As regards the insurance sector, that static limbo we enjoy in the meantime can be a good thing in some ways, although we should expect a bumpy ride politically in the short term. New insurtechs will flourish, big companies will re-locate where the overheads are competitive, hoover up the small fry with potential and our economic lives will continue to inexorably shift online – no vote can alter those financial facts of life.
That is the reality of our industry. It is undeniably highly regulated, and yet it continues to break free in a wonderfully agile, app-based manner that very few of the shouty, childish MPs in the Commons, truly understand. Life goes on, business needs to be done, but politicians have their moment in the sun, and then fade away.